We’ve replaced the “Knowledge” section of our website with our “Tools and Tactics” section. We have retained this section as an archive of our Weekly Corn Market Updates for the 2020 Crop Year and original versions of some of our first articles. Updated versions of those articles can be found on our Tools and Tactics page. Future editions of the Weekly Corn Market Update will be stored on their own page.
Weekly Corn Market Update 03/13/20
In the shorter-term, looking ahead to next week, we see a 52.05% chance that Dec20 corn futures will finish the week higher. We'd consider movement within the $3.6225-$3.8325 per bushel range to be unremarkable. Noteworthy moves would extend to the $3.4500-$3.9875 per bushel range. Price action beyond that would be considered extreme.
Fall 2020 Crop Insurance Price Expectations
December 2020 corn futures settled at $3.77/bushel today. Readers should note that our model says the corn options market implies a well-over 50% chance that the Fall Price will be lower than today's settlement…
Risk Premiums
The concept of risk premiums is a great tool for understanding how financial markets attempt to balance the probabilities of an uncertain future. We can see risk premiums in many markets, from crude oil to corn. Like most aspects of financial markets, risk premiums are fleeting and difficult, if not impossible, to calculate with any confidence. They can, however, provide us with a conceptual model to understand better how and why particular markets display certain tendencies.