Weekly Corn Update 03/06/20

December 2020 (Dec20) corn futures (the benchmark for new-crop corn) finished the week higher by $0.0450/bushel (~1.19%) to settle at $3.8150/bushel. Some broad market volatility spilled over into the grain markets with Dec20 corn futures posting an 11.25-cent (~2.98%) range. Continued instability in outside markets will likely further impact the corn market. These impacts can be unpredictable in timing, direction, and size. As always, we recommend careful and disciplined risk management.

Looking ahead to next week, we see a 50.55% chance that Dec20 corn futures will finish the week lower. We'd consider movement within the $3.7475-$3.8875 per bushel range to be unremarkable. Noteworthy moves would extend to the $3.6550-$3.9900 per bushel range. Price action beyond that would be considered extreme. The USDA releases its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Tuesday at 11:00 am CDT, which may impact markets. Remember to set your clocks an hour ahead this weekend.

Looking ahead to Fall 2020 Crop Insurance Price (the average settlement of Dec20 corn futures in October), our expectations for the distribution of prices are little changed. We see a slight shift to the upside corresponding with this week's slightly higher settlement price. However, we believe there is a 58.69% chance the average will come in lower than this week's settlement.